The Tigers men’s basketball team is 17 games into their 2015-16 season and have complied a 12-5 record. The Daily Helmsman asked its three sports reporters Austin Reynolds, J.T. Mullen and our newest addition Chip Williams on their thoughts of what’s been an interesting season for Josh Pastner’s squad and their predictions for Thursday’s game against Cincinnati.
Has Memphis basketball (12-5) exceeded, underperformed or been where you expected them to be 17 games into the season?
AR: Slightly exceeded, but my expectations were lower than most. I was predicting a down year, but outside of the UT-Arlington loss, the Tigers have taken care of business in every game you'd expect them to win.
JM: I think it’s been about what everyone expected. They have beaten whom they were supposed to beat and mostly looked good doing so. They have proved to have plenty of talent and potential, but they haven’t been able to pull out the big games.
CW: They're about where I expected them to be coming into the season. If the Tigers keep up this current winning percentage, they should finish with around 22 wins, and I think that's about where everyone expected them to be.
What's been the biggest surprise? Biggest disappointment?
AR: The biggest surprise of the season was that the Tigers almost came away with an upset over Oklahoma at the beginning of the season. The Sooners are currently the No. 1 team in the AP Poll, and that game against the Tigers easily could've gotten out of hand, but Memphis was right in it until the final buzzer.
The biggest disappointment is that this team is painful to watch on offense. The Tigers shoot 40 percent from the field and 30 percent from three. Those are some of the worst marks in Division I. Dedric Lawson is shooting 40 percent. That's incredibly inefficient for a big man. His brother KJ is shooting 36 percent and Jeremiah Martin is at 27.5 percent. The list goes on and on.
JM: The biggest surprise with this team is how tough and entertaining they have been all season. No matter the situation, this team plays hard and leaves it all on the floor. This is something you couldn’t say about some of the most recent Tiger squads.
The biggest disappointment has to be scoring. The Tigers continue to be one of the best defensive teams in the country, but they struggle to put the ball in the basket. With the caliber of player on this roster, this shouldn’t be a problem. If Memphis was more balanced on the offensive end to go along with its defensive prowess, this season could be a season to remember.
CW: The biggest surprise has to be Dedric Lawson. He's playing as well as any freshman has played at Memphis since Tyreke Evans, and he just won his fifth AAC Rookie of the Week award. Lawson had high expectations coming into Memphis, but he has far outdone what I think even the most optimistic of prognosticators projected. Once he learns to be more efficient and gets a better feel for the college game, there's really no telling what Lawson could do. Let's not forget, he reclassified, so technically he should be making senior prom plans.
The biggest disappointment has been Kedren Johnson, and not just this season, but for his entire Memphis career. He came in out of shape after being dismissed from Vanderbilt, where he led the team in scoring and assists, and to put it mildly, it's been an uphill climb for him at Memphis. Johnson has only appeared in six games this season for the Tigers while he's been dealing with an ailing shoulder, and it appears as though his career at Memphis will end in uneventful fashion.
What has been Memphis' biggest hurdle in terms of getting key wins (Oklahoma, Ole Miss, UConn to name a few)?
AR: Again, the team can't shoot. If the Tigers could convert even 45 percent of their shots on a consistent basis, a lot of those losses probably would turn into wins.
JM: Memphis had a shot to win each of the aforementioned games, but nothing went their way in the final minutes. It’s hard to put your finger on one thing, but when you cannot shoot the ball (Tigers are shooting 40 percent from the field and only 29.6 percent from the 3pt land) it will be very challenging to pull out close games.
CW: Poor shooting and lack of efficient scoring has hurt the Tigers during big games. Memphis ranks tied for 315 out of 346 teams in field goal percentage and tied for 324 out of 346 in three-point field goal percentage. The Tigers struggle to manufacture easy baskets when they need them, and when trying to beat good teams, there are going to be situations in which you need to score a few easy buckets.
At this point, does Memphis have to win the AAC Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament?
AR: Yes. The only way Memphis could get an at-large bid is if they get hot and knock off SMU and some other elite teams while avoiding losses. But SMU hasn't lost a single time this season, and I just can't see how the Tigers are the team to do it.
JM: At 12-5, with no big nonconference wins and not a single road victory, I think its clear the Tigers will have to win the AAC title. Looking forward the Tigers have plenty of chances to build on their resume, but I just don’t think an at-large is possible regardless. The Tigers do have a serious chance to win the AAC tournament though, especially with SMU banned from post-season play and UConn and Cincinnati underperforming.
CW: Yes. At their current rate, a 22-9 regular season record won't be good enough to get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. If the Tigers run the table the rest of the regular season, then they would make a strong case for an at-large bid since that would include two wins over SMU, a win over UConn and Houston, and two wins over Cincinnati, but an early season home loss to UT-Arlington is still a blemish on their resume.
Finally, the Tigers have a big road game against Cincinnati Thursday night. Will Memphis get the win? Why or why not?
AR: Cincinnati hasn't been as strong as they've been in recent seasons, and as I wrote about yesterday, Memphis has been solid in games against slower paced teams over the last two seasons. I think the Tigers find a way to get the win.
JM: Sure it’s a road game against a tough Cincy squad, but this Bearcats team has stumbled in the last few weeks (lost three of the last six AAC matchups, including two games to Temple). Memphis should be able to match Cincinnati’s in toughness and on the boards, which in most seasons would not the case. Both of these teams rank in the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (Cincinnati at 17 and Memphis at 21) and neither is extremely effective on offense. I’ll take Memphis in a close game (let’s say 71-67) behind the offense of its core three: Goodwin, Lawson and Tarrant.
CW: I don't think so, but it wouldn't shock me. This is a good, not great Cincinnati team, but it's always difficult to win road game in conference play. It wouldn't be surprising if Memphis and Cincinnati won their respective home games in this season series.
Dedric Lawson has emerged as one of the best freshmen in the country in 2015-16. He’s averaging 14.5 points and 8.9 rebounds per game.
