With Memphis’s huge 32-31 win over Arkansas this Saturday, they’ve improved to 4-0 and now have the best chance to make the College Football Playoff out of all the Group of 5 teams.
According to ESPN’s playoff predictor, Memphis now has a 35.7% chance to make the playoffs, the 15th highest in the country. The College Football Playoff has 12 teams, with one of them coming from the highest ranked Group of 5 conference champion.
Jackson Mars, Memphis football super-fan, said, “I bet Memphis has a strong chance to win the American this year being that they just had the hog for lunch on Saturday.”
The playoff spot now runs through the American Conference. Last year it came down to two teams out of the Mountain West, UNLV and Boise State. Boise State was the favorite coming into this year but were quickly knocked down a notch when USF defeated them in Week 1.
The American Conference now has five out of the top seven Group of 5 teams with the best chances to make the playoffs. Along with Memphis, North Texas, USF, Tulane and Navy are all in the mix. Memphis plays all these teams besides North Texas.
Memphis has three huge matchups this season and all of them are at home. To win the conference and have a chance to make the playoffs, they probably need to win at least two of them, as well as win the rest of their games.
The first big game comes against USF on October 25th. USF made a huge splash in the college football landscape, defeating 25th ranked Boise State in week 1 then winning at 13th ranked Florida in week 2. They lost to 5th ranked Miami in week 3 but have proven they are a good team and are still front-runners for the playoffs. Memphis beat USF 21-3 last season and have beaten them four straight times.
Nathan Pomerenk, student journalist who hosts a weekly sports talk show on the Roar radio, said, “I think the biggest game of the year is against South Florida because of their performance against Florida and a win over them would give us our best chance at the playoffs.”
Next, the Tigers play Tulane on November 7th on a Friday night on ESPN. Tulane started the year with two wins over Power 4 teams, beating Northwestern and Duke. They lost to 13th ranked Ole Miss but remain one of the top Group of 5 teams. Memphis beat 17th ranked Tulane last season, 34-24.
In the last game of the regular season, Memphis plays Navy on November 27th. Navy has started the season 3-0, and they are already 2-0 in conference games. Navy went 10-3 last season and were ranked 24th at one point. Navy beat 24th ranked Memphis in a thriller last season 56-44.
Memphis also must take care of business against their other conference opponents. The game to look at out for of these is a road game against East Carolina. According to ESPN Analytics’ Matchup Predictor, Memphis has a 60.8% chance to win this game, the lowest of any remaining game this season.
